By Justin Giovannelli and Kevin Lucia

Congressional Republicans and the new president are pushing to repeal key portions of the Affordable Care Act, including the law’s financial subsidies for low- and middle-income Americans and the individual mandate. Opponents of the law promise repeal will be followed by a replacement plan, but the timing, content, and political viability of an ACA alternative remain highly uncertain.

What happens if portions of the ACA are repealed without timely replacement? Independent quantitative analyses find millions of Americans would lose coverage. The resulting regulatory landscape would look like what several states had in place prior to the ACA. Their experiences were similarly grim.

In a new study for The Commonwealth Fund, Justin Giovannelli and Kevin Lucia examine state health reform efforts prior to the ACA to see what they can tell us about the effects of repeal. You can read their analysis here.